Selling The Talents

It's that time again, isn't it? We all remember 4 years ago in the Christmas of 2002 when the newspapers started claiming that Manchester United, Deportivo de la Coruna, Barcelona were in the hunt for Ricardo Quaresma and a few months later Arsenal, Juventus, Inter Milan and Manchester United made their interest in Cristiano Ronaldo very clear with a bidding war.

It's inevitable that Nani and Moutinho will eventually leave Sporting much like Ronaldo, Quaresma, Viana and Simão before them, therefore there's no need to get upset over an inevitable outcome, the only 2 things I ask is that they are sold for the right price and if possible sold at the right time.

So, how much are Nani and João Moutinho really worth? In my estimation if they are sold from May 2007 to 12 months after that the correct financial compensation should be 25 million for Nani and 20 million for Moutinho.
This will all depend on the club, the players, Scolari and a little luck as their market value hopefully increases at a steady rate over the coming 8 months if they play well and get the right ammount of exposure (in the eyes of the potential suitors) in the only really meaningfull stages, The Champions League and the Portuguese National Squad.

30 million buy-out clause for Nani? That's not too bad but 40 million would give us greater barganing leverage. Cristiano Ronaldo had a 25 million euro buyout clause yet he left us for 15 to 17,5 million (depending on whom you chose to believe in) therefore the clause itself does not reflect a player's actual value and is merely a tool to force potential buyers to the negotiating table.

Realistically Nani will very difficultly ever be worth above 25 million euros as long as he is at Sporting because team's from this country do not have that much mediatic exposure in Europe unless they win the CL and allow anomalies such as selling Ricardo Carvalho for 30 million euros or Paulo Ferreira for 20 millions.

Therefore in order to sell him for 25 I rather have a 40 million buyout clause in his contract. In a best case scenario he can be worth 25 million within 9-12 months. By best case scenario meaning plenty of exposure in the only meaningfull showcases namely the CL and Portugal.
If Nani starts in 6 games for Portugal between now and next Summer and Sporting passes the group stages of CL and Nani plays regularly (and plays well) then his market value can indeed be inflated to close to 25 million.

Cristiano Ronaldo had 3 major valorization moments:

1) When he played against Inter Milan in August 2002 using "Inter's brand" name as drawing power to attract football world's attention to him.
2) Winning the 2003 Toulon Tournament and further adding value to the "Cristiano Ronaldo" brand name in the mind of potential suitors.
3) When Manchester United played Vs Sporting and Ronaldo showcased his talents using the spotlight that was there for Manchester United's brand name and stealing the world media's attention.

Had Ronaldo been sold in May 2003 he wouldn't have gone for more than 6 million, after attaching himself to the exposure the media gave to Toulon and Man Utd his market value soared and the same might happen to Nani if his name is attached to Bayern Munich's, Inter Milan's and Scolari's in the coming months.

Nani's moments so far:

1) Portugal's best player at the U-21 Euro.
2) A spectacular debut for Portugal Vs Denmark (nobody in Europe knew who he was before this, a reflection on the unexistent exposure of our League).
3) A good performance Vs Inter Milan in the CL.

25 million is not unreallistic. I don't want to sell Nani but since he'll be sold eventually let's hope his market value can be increased as much as possible before then so we can maximize the club's gains in the sad loss of a potentially great player.

The right time to sell Nani or Moutinho would not be next Summer but the Summer after that. Why? Simply because there are no ready replacements and we can not fall into another cycle of selling "Star X" and "Star Y" comes up the Summer after that but is only at the level of "Star X" 2 seasons later and meanwhile 3 years have passed before somebody has filled the void.

Realistically are there more Nanis and Moutinhos in the pipeline? Yes, there are, but if they come up next July while N18 and JM28 leave in May nobody can expect their "heirs" to be able to fill their role, so at least one season must be available for a smooth transition.
Right now Nani is our new Cristiano Ronaldo but CR18 left in August 2003 and N18 came up in July 2005, does anybody think the heir would have been ready in August 03?
It took 3 years and in those years we lost a great deal of strenght on the pitch and only now we have recovered it and it's no coincidence that it's happened at a moment where we have held on to N18 and JM28 and let's not mince words, Moutinho is a lot more pivotal to the team right now than RQ7 was in May 2003 and Nani also more valuable than CR18 at the end of 02/03.

Fortunately our cantera these days is actually producing quality in greater quantities than 4 years ago, we are already past the point where only 1 player come up every year and it will be dificult for fewer than 4 youngsters (Daniel Carriço, João Martins, Bruno Pereirinha and maybe Fábio Paim) to come up next year so replacements are definitely on the horizon but they need time to aclimate to the pressures and responsibilites and to grow as players to the level of the departing ones.

Eventually the Bruno Pereirinhas, Fábio Paims can replace Nani and the João Martins and Adrien Silvas can replace Moutinho but they cannot arrive and be ready, they need time to grow and that's why it's paramount to hold on to the talents for at least another season as the team consolidates and replacements come up.
And make no mistake Nani and Moutinho's market value will not drop between June 07 and June 08, if anything it will go slightly up, and if possible we must make the "sacrifice" of holding on to them for another year.

As for Miguel Veloso and Yannick right now it's impossible to get a bearing on their market value in Europe, they have so far done nothing, we can have hopes and dreams but I for one cannot estimate anything out of 2 or 3 performances. We'll see.

Nobody wants to sell Nani and João next Summer but if they are sold ahead of the proper time let it be for the right price, 45 million euros, and let's hope that ammount goes directly into the banks to which we owe money.
And if that means sacrificing the entire season of 2007/08 as the new youngsters enter a transition season before we have regained strength for 2008/09 then let it be but no more selling players for 6,5 (plus 1,3 in Rochemback's salaries over 24 months) millions like we did with RQ20 or letting Ronaldo go for less than 20 million simply because his contratc ran out in June 2004.

Sign new contracts with Nani, Veloso, and Yannick and attempt the effort of holding on to them untill Euro 2008 where no doubt their importance to Portugal will be even greater and by then they might have over a dozen CL games in their resumes and meanwhile keep slowly and gradully bringing up more babies from our cantera so we are ready for the Sporting post-Nani and post-Moutinho.



André